The hottest Luzhou Stock Exchange Futures Crude oi

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LUZHENG Futures: the surge of crude oil was blocked, and Shanghai oil rebounded strongly.

I. market description

crude oil market: this week, NYMEX crude oil futures surged back, still not getting rid of the recent pattern of weakness. At the beginning of the week, after the year-end assessment and evaluation stabilized at $111, it began to rebound gradually. The crude oil futures price was stimulated by the decrease of gasoline in the inventory report, and with the sharp decline of the high level of the US dollar, it ushered in a three-day rebound. A total of five layers will push up to $120 at one fell swoop and receive $121. All kinds of signs show that the correction of crude oil will end and start a strong rebound. However, the sharp fall of $6.59 on Friday completely suppressed the willingness of the futures price to rebound, and finally closed at $114.78, up $1 from last week. From the technical figure, the small Yang star with long upper shadow formed by the weekly K line shows great upward pressure, and MACD still shows no sign of turning around, and increases its exposure and green energy column. Currently, it is still in the downlink channel. However, the 40 week moving average and the 0.618 gold since 2007 (182, -4.74, -2.54%, right) technical callback support are still valid. This is worth focusing on in the future

Shanghai Oil Market: just as the crude oil was retreating step by step, Shanghai oil showed strong resistance to decline and ushered in a strong rebound. Monday's 6% increase laid the foundation for this week's rise. After a slight correction on Tuesday, the daily average rose by 3% in the next three days. The main contract 811 recovered around 5000 yuan, and finally closed at 4988 yuan, up 543 yuan compared with the previous week. The transaction volume doubled significantly, reaching more than 740000 hands. The trading became significantly active and the differences increased. From the technical figure, the Japanese K-line has jumped up one after another, regaining the 20 day moving average. The recent downward pressure line has broken through. Moreover, the 5-day moving average has crossed the 10 day moving average, and the low MACD golden fork. Various indicators show the strength of the rebound, indicating that the rebound will begin. However, the weakness of crude oil is difficult to support Shanghai oil, but will drag down its rise. Therefore, under the pattern of weak crude oil, we do not expect it to rebound sharply again, and pay attention to the pressure of 5000 yuan

II. Fundamental analysis

1. Supply and demand analysis:

oil movements, a British tanker tracking agency, said on Thursday that it is expected that the crude oil transportation volume of OPEC member states excluding Angola and Ecuador will increase to 24.82 million barrels per day in the four weeks ended September 6, an increase of about 200000 barrels per day compared with 24.62 million barrels per day in the four weeks ended August 9. Mason, the head of the agency, said that most of OPEC's export destinations are the United States and Europe. With the seasonal decline in demand, it is expected that the transportation volume will decline in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, due to the increased supply from Iran and Angola, OPEC crude oil output will increase from 32.5 million barrels per day in July to 32.95 million barrels per day in August. The increase in OPEC output in August also depresses oil prices and low industry concentration. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the global demand for petroleum oil in the first half of 2008 increased by only 500000 barrels per day to 85.56 million barrels per day compared with the first half of 2007, of which the US demand fell by 800000 barrels year-on-year, This is the largest decline in the past 26 years - the consumption in the first half of 1982 decreased by nearly 800000 barrels/day. Crude oil prices showed a significant correction. However, China's demand performance is strong. According to Reuters' calculation based on China's official data, China's apparent oil demand in July was 7.81 million barrels a day, an increase of 9.5% over the same period of last year, the largest increase in two years. The record import of refined oil offset the decline in crude oil import. Data show that in January, the apparent oil demand increased by 6.0% year-on-year to 7.4 million barrels per day

2. The US economy is weak but the US dollar is relatively strong

most economic indicators in the US have approached or reached the level of the US economic recession in history, and the probability of the US economy falling into recession is increasing. However, the current cycle of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has never bottomed out. The Federal Reserve usually continues to loosen monetary policy when the economy is in recession, and the Federal Reserve often tightens monetary policy after confirming that the economy recovers for a long time. Although the current tax rebate policy is gradually stimulating the growth of U.S. consumption, it is expected that the U.S. economy will fall into recession before the end of 2008. Recent economic data were disappointing. In July, housing construction fell by 11% to 965000 units month on month, while construction permits fell by 17.7% to 937000 units. In July, the producer price index rose by 1.2% and the core index rose by 0.7%, both much higher than expected. The annual inflation rate in the United States is now as high as 9.8%, and the core inflation rate is 3.5%. In July, CPI rose by 5.6% year-on-year, the highest since February 1991. However, the economic downturn in the EU and Japan exceeded expectations, which led to a strong rebound in the US dollar, and the commodity price pressure is still large

3. The inventory report was positive, which boosted the oil price in the short term

according to the report of the US Department of energy, the US gasoline inventory decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 196.6 million barrels last week, with an expected decrease of 2.7 million barrels. At the same time, US crude oil inventories increased by 9.4 million barrels to 196.6 million barrels last week, the largest weekly increase in seven years. Distillate oil inventory increased by 500000 barrels to 135million barrels, with an expected increase of 400000 barrels. The operating rate of the refinery decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 85.7%

4. Fund position conversion pattern

the environment committee has released its shopping bag proposal, reporting that the pattern of short positions of crude oil funds has increased

according to the weekly CFTC fund position report, the fund short position pattern has changed slightly, from the net short position pattern for four consecutive weeks to the net long position, and the increase is a sudden increase. The long position has increased by 12254 hands, while the long position has decreased by 8535 hands. The fund position pattern instantly turned into a net 11659 hands. The Bulls recaptured their lost ground. Therefore, under the pattern of rapid change of fund pattern, it is less likely to continue to suppress the price of crude oil futures in the future market, and the short-term direction is waiting for clarification

5. Geopolitics leads to large fluctuations

geopolitics intensifies the volatility of oil prices. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that the signing of the anti missile base agreement between the United States and Poland would "stimulate the arms race in Europe". Since the pipeline explosion in Turkey on August 5, about 1.1 million barrels of Caspian crude oil transmission has been interrupted. Russia's military action against Georgia forced the closure of some export routes, intensified the contraction of market supply, and led to a surge in oil prices. However, on Friday, Russia withdrew its troops from Georgia, which plunged the oil prices back to their previous levels

III. future research and judgment

the recent trend of crude oil is very uncertain. It has been competing for the technical position of $110 for nearly two weeks, and the winner has not been decided yet. The short-term geopolitical hype has made the oil price fluctuate sharply. Friday's sharp fall has put futures prices in a stalemate again. It is noteworthy that the pattern of fund positions has changed very quickly, and this week it has become more than 10000 net hands. It is questionable whether this is a short-term speculation or a complete change in the pattern. This week, the most concerned crude oil is the multiple technical support of $110. For the relatively strong Shanghai oil, it is difficult to rise sharply without the cooperation of crude oil. Therefore, in terms of operation, keep short-term trading. It is expected that this week's range will be 4500-5000 yuan, and deal with it with the idea of being short

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