The hottest LUZHENG futures rubber fell in shock a

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LUZHENG Futures: Rubber fell in shock and tried to support in the early stage.

I. summary of trading in the previous trading day.

Shanghai Tianjiao futures 0811 contract fell in shock yesterday after a continuous rebound. On July 28, the settlement price opened slightly higher than that of the previous day. After the opening, it rose rapidly, fell back when encountering obstacles at the 10 day moving average, and then maintained the trend of concussion and decline. At the end of the day, it rose slightly, and closed at 25295 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2%. The trading volume was larger than that of the previous day, and the position was increased. The trend of Shanghai Tianjiao futures 0809 contract was stronger than that of 0811 contract, but the trading volume and position continued to decrease

II. Recent news impact

at the end of last week, Baling Petrochemical's CIS polybutadiene rubber unit with an annual capacity of 40000 tons was shut down again due to the shortage of raw butadiene, which is expected to last for about half a month. This is the second full line stop after the stop from July 4 to 18. According to the data released by Vietnam National Bureau of statistics, Vietnam's rubber export volume in July was 70000 tons, an increase of 2. 5% over the same period last year Orders of extruder enterprises will rise by 9% by a large margin. The data also showed that the rubber export volume in July increased by 58.9% to US $205million, higher than US $129million in the same period last year. The rubber export volume of Vietnam in July last year was 68000 tons. According to the customs, China imported 48000 tons of natural rubber from Thailand in June, an increase of 8000 tons over may and an increase of 8% over the same period in 2007; In June, 25000 tons of natural rubber were imported from Malaysia, a decrease of 6000 tons compared with may, a year-on-year decrease of 33%; In June, it imported 20000 tons of natural rubber from Indonesia, a decrease of 3000 tons compared with may, a year-on-year decrease of 27%. This data shows that China is increasing imports from Thailand, while imports from Malaysia and Indonesia are decreasing. In addition, China's total imports in June decreased by 10% year-on-year. The high import cost is hurting China's demand. Bridgestone (China) Investment Co., Ltd. recently announced that it will adjust the sales price of its brand tires from August this year. The prices of its car tires and truck and bus tires will be increased by 7-10%. In addition, after the suspension of rainfall in July, rubber farmers in southern Thailand began to cut rubber again. Exporters said that the supply would peak in August, but observing the overall supply in 2008, the output was not very bright. On the spot, You can refer to the following table:


date product code/name trading volume average price maximum price minimum price rise and fall

SCR 5/5p> SCR5 (z)/55s 84 26805 2681026800 0

SCR5 (R)/5. Milk standard 777 27100 27100 27100 0

Haikou trading hall

date product code/name average trading volume highest price lowest price rise and fall

cnr/concentrated latex 605 171291794017050 0.16

scrg/clear rubber 2122550 22550 22550 0

2001, longitudinal displacement, lateral displacement Stiffness scr20/2035; standard adhesive 8426100 26100 26100 0

200 these building blocks must be combined with billions of Lego building blocks currently in use in the world in one SCR5 (z)/55standard 84268052681026800

SCR5 (R)/5. Milk standard 777 27100 27100 27100 0

Kunming trading hall

date product code/name average trading volume highest price lowest price rise or fall

SCR 5/55standard glue 381 27181 27300 26850 -0.07

cnr/concentrated latex 10 17840 17840 17840 0.51

III. operation suggestions

yesterday's 0811 contract fell after continuous rebound. Under the pressure of continuous callback of crude oil price, Before the downward trend of rubber has not changed, we still hold a partial empty operation idea for rubber. From the disk view, due to the strong spot price, the inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the contract in recent months remained strong; The far month contract is in a weak consolidation stage due to the recent continuous weakening of crude oil price and the possible improvement of Tianjiao spot supply in the later stage, and there are great differences between the long and short sides. In terms of operation, it is recommended to reduce the profit short option in batches and participate in the 0811 contract. The support level should focus on the 24000 line, the resistance level should focus on the 26000 line, and the 0809 contract should not be involved

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